Maximum entropy modelling for predicting the potential distribution of methanogens in Sundarban mangrove ecosystem, India
N. Das, A. Mondal, S. Mandal
Section: Methodology and research methods. Models and forecasts
The production of methane (CH 4 ) by methanogens (Mgen) in mangrove sediments is known to contribute significantly to global warming. In such an estuarine environment, the abundance and population assemblage of Mgen are not well understood. Recently, there has been an increase of interest to understand about the properties of habitat distribution and the main environmental factors that influence mangrove suitability. Here, we used a maximum entropy (Maxent) species distribution model and a geographic information system (GIS) to determine the current habitat suitability distribution of Mgen in the Sundarban mangrove ecosystem in India. The Worldclim elevation (elev), precipitation (precp), solar radiation (srad), average temperature (tavg), maximum temperature (tmax), minimum temperature (tmin), water vapor pressure (vap) and the wind speed (wind) data and 36 spatially well-dispersed species occurrence points were used to predict the potential distribution of Mgen in the 14,317 km2 study area. The results indicated that Mgen has a high potential distribution at the deforested areas adjacent to the riverine system in the Indian Sundarban mangrove ecosystem. Jackknife test was used to evaluate the importance of the environmental variables for predictive modeling. The prcp is the most important environmental variable which influences the distribution of Mgen in mangrove sediments. With an AUC (area under curve “Sensitivity vs. Specificity”) of 0.826, the Maxent model was extremely accurate. The study shows that Maxent could be a useful tool for species rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation planning in the face of climate change.
ISSN 1995-4301
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