To estimation of the probability of human primary incidence growth in the conditions of a natural biogeochemical province without endemic diseases
E.A. Malkova, E.V. Mikheeva, I.A. Kshnyasev
Section: Social ecology
The article is dedicated to the human population primary morbidity in the natural biogeochemical province with heavy metal abundance (nickel, cobalt, chromium). In the studied region the concentrations of chemical elements, which form province, do not reach the endemic diseases limits. To investigate a five-year period human morbidity, the retrospective method was used. To classify the studied diseases, the International Classification of Diseases of the tenth revision was applied.
The primary morbidity investigations were carried through three territories: nickel-cobalt-chromium natural
biogeochemical province, the Ekaterinburg megapolis, the biogeochemical background region, that are situated in the Sverdlovsk region of Russian Federation. The abnormal soil concentrations of heave metal are from natural ultrabasic rocks chemistry origin. For morbidity odds analysis the generalized linear model was used; and canonical correspondence analysis was used for the investigation of morbidity structure. Statistically significant differences in the structure of primary morbidity of three investigated territories were found. The maximum level of primary morbidity odds was found in the natural biogeochemical province.
The odds of the primary occurrence of the circulatory system diseases in the province are 3.44 times higher than in megapolis (Ekaterinburg) and 2.57 times higher than in a biogeochemical background with a similar age structure of the studied population. The respiratory diseases odds in the provinces are 1.49 and 1.85 times higher than in the Ekaterinburg and biogeochemical background respectively. The musculoskeletal system diseases risk in the biogeochemical province is 2.5 and 1.38 times higher than in the Ekaterinburg and biogeochemical background respectively.
The differences between the populations of the natural biogeochemical province, megapolis, and geochemical background territory are more significant than interannual primary morbidity fluctuations in the each studied population. This indicates a significant risk of non-endemic diseases caused by the natural geochemical factor.
ISSN 1995-4301
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