Climate modeling of the potential distribution area of Pulsatilla turczaninovii Kryl. et Serg. (Ranunculaceae) in Eurasia
V.F. Zaykov, V.Vaganov, A.I. Shmakov
Section: Population ecology
Pulsatilla turczaninovii Kryl. et Serg. is an early flowering, ornamental plant species collected actively by people. Due to the medicinal properties of the species, the raw material is used in traditional medicine. In this regard, P. turczaninovii is rare and is listed in some regional Red Data Books of the Russian Federation. A study of the funds of the leading Eurasian Herbaria (LE, MW, B, VLA, NS (NSK), ALTB, PE), special literary sources and personal observations of the authors in nature made it possible to detail the current distribution area of the species. P. turczaninovii occupies the territory of Western and Eastern Siberia, the Far East, China and Mongolia, without going beyond the borders of North Asia. The potential area of P. turczaninovii was obtained using the climate modeling method based on the data of the modern distribution of the species and eight bioclimatic variables (screening of correlating variables was done in the SDMtoolbox application) in the MaxEnt program. According to the AUC index of the test sample, the predictive model showed high quality of the result interpretation. The AUC value was 0.879 ± 0.016. The permutation test revealed the factors with the greatest influence on the distribution of P. turczaninovii. The most important factors were: BIO1 (32.5 %) – an average annual temperature, BIO12 (21.9 %) – an average annual precipitation, BIO15 (16.1 %) – a precipitation seasonality, BIO19 (11.5 %) – a precipitation of the coldest quarter, the lowest factor was BIO8 (0.4 %) – an average temperature of the wettest quarter.
Keywords: climate, distribution area, Herbarium, rare species